China's luxury market in 2024 experienced a significant slowdown, driven by economic stagnation, a real estate crisis, and a rise in outbound shopping. This marked a turning point for the country's luxury market, which was once seen as a promising growth engine for global luxury brands. The weakened economy, persistent real estate crisis, and a discerning younger generation exercising restraint in discretionary spending all contributed to the slowdown.
The property sector, which contributes around 30 percent of China's GDP, saw a 15 percent drop in investment. This contraction had a negative wealth effect, eroding discretionary income among affluent households and resulting in a shift in purchasing behavior. Analysts at HSBC revised their luxury market growth forecast downward, predicting just 2.8 percent growth in 2024, compared to the previous estimate of 5.5 percent.
Price sensitivity among Chinese consumers led to a resurgence in outbound shopping. Favorable exchange rates and tax-free opportunities in destinations like Japan and Hainan made luxury purchases significantly cheaper. Japan's weak yen reduced prices for luxury goods by 30 to 40 percent, attracting a steady stream of Chinese shoppers. Approximately 52 percent of affluent Chinese consumers made overseas luxury purchases in the first half of 2024, impacting domestic sales and alienating aspirational consumers.
Luxury brands implemented significant price increases in China and globally as part of their strategy to fight inflation, maintain brand value, and maximize profits. However, structural economic challenges disproportionately affected China's youth, a key driver of luxury spending. Youth unemployment reached a record high, leading to a decline in discretionary spending among those aged 16 to 24. This demographic showed a preference for travel, entertainment, and wellness experiences over material goods.
The changing tastes of China's younger generations reshaped the luxury landscape. Millennials and Gen Z sought brands with cultural relevance, authenticity, and sustainability, while rejecting overt displays of wealth. This shift in consumer behavior aligns with Xi Jinping's campaign against "luxury shame," discouraging ostentatious consumption. Luxury houses like LVMH and Richemont reported lower sales in the region, while homegrown luxury alternatives saw success.
The outlook for China's luxury market remains uncertain. Weak consumer confidence, a pressured middle class, and rising economic inequality are expected to curb growth. Brands that want to recover must prioritize localized offerings, pricing stability, and engage with culturally conscious, value-driven consumers. The lesson for global luxury brands is clear: unchecked growth is no longer guaranteed in China's evolving market, and the ability to adapt will determine success.
